Accounting for spatial varying sampling effort due to accessibility in Citizen Science data: A case study of moose in Norway

Abstract

Citizen Scientists together with an increasing access to technology provide large datasets that can be used to study e.g. ecology and biodiversity. Unknown and varying sampling effort is a major issue when making inference based on citizen science data. In this paper we propose a modeling approach for accounting for variation in sampling effort due to accessibility. The paper is based on an illustrative case study using citizen science data of moose occurrence in Hedmark, Norway. The aim is to make inference about the importance of two geographical properties known to influence moose occurrence; terrain ruggedness index and solar radiation. Explanatory analysis shows that moose occurrences are overrepresented close to roads, and we use distance to roads as a proxy for accessibility. We propose a model based on a Bayesian Log-Gaussian Cox Process specification for occurrence. The model accounts for accessibility through two functional forms. This approach can be seen as a thinning process where probability of thinning, i.e. not observing, increases with increasing distances. For the moose case study distance to roads are used. Computationally efficient full Bayesian inference is performed using the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation and the Stochastic Partial Differential Equation approach for spatial modeling. The proposed model as well as the consequences of not accounting for varying sampling effort due to accessibility are studied through a simulation study based on the case study. Considerable biases are found in estimates for the effect of radiation on moose occurrence when accessibility is not considered in the model.