Accounting for sources of uncertainty when forecasting population responses to climate change.

Abstract

In Focus: Jaatinen, K., Westerbom, M., Norkko, A., Mustonen, O., & Koons, D. N. (2021). Detrimental impacts of climate change may be exacerbated by density-dependent population regulation in blue mussels. Journal of Animal Ecology, 90, 562-573, https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13377. Conservation strategies for threatened species are increasingly dependent on forecasts of population responses to climate change. For such forecasts to be accurate, they must account for multiple sources of uncertainty, including those associated with projections of future climate scenarios and those associated with the models used to describe population dynamics. While many population forecasts incorporate parameter uncertainty in abiotic effects and process variance related to unexplained temporal variation, most forecasts overlook the importance of evaluating uncertainty in the structure of the population model itself. By accounting for structural uncertainties in a model of population growth for blue mussels, Jaatinen et al. (2021) demonstrated that density-dependent processes are likely to exacerbate adverse effects of climate change and reduce population viability of this keystone species. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating structural unknowns in population forecasts and the value of approaches that account for multiple sources of climate and model uncertainties. Forecasts that capture a range of possible population trajectories under climate change will help ensure efficient allocation of limited conservation resources.