Abstract
Spatial conservation prioritization should seek to anticipate climate change impacts on biodiversity and to mitigate these impacts through the development of dynamic conservation plans. Here, we defined spatial priorities for the conservation of amphibians inhabiting the Atlantic Forest Biodiversity Hotspot that overcome the likely impacts of climate change on the distribution of this imperiled fauna. First, we built ecological niche models (ENMs) for 431 amphibian species both for current time and for the mid-point of a 30-year period spanning 2071–2099 (i.e. 2080). For modeling species' niches, we combined six modeling methods and three different climate models. We also quantified and mapped model uncertainties. Our consensus models forecasted range shifts that culminate with high species richness in central and eastern Atlantic Forest, both for current time and for 2080. Most species had a significant range contraction (up to 72%) and 12% of species were projected to be regionally extinct. Most species would need to disperse because suitable climatic sites will change. Therefore, we identified a network of priority sites for conservation that minimizes the distance a given species would need to disperse because of changes in future habitat suitability (i.e. climate-forced dispersal) as well as uncertainties associated to ENMs. This network also maximized complementary species representation across currently established protected areas. Priority sites already include possible dispersal corridors linking current and future suitable habitats for amphibians. Although we used the a top-ranked Biodiversity Hotspot and amphibians as a case study for illustrating our approach, our study may help developing more effective conservation strategies under climate change, especially when applied at different spatial scales, geographic regions, and taxonomic groups.
Highlights
A wide range of evidences indicate climate change as one the greatest threats to biodiversity in the 21th century [1]
We used a top-ranked Biodiversity Hotspot and amphibians as a case study for illustrating our approach, we believe this could help developing effective conservation actions under a dynamic assessment
Our approach may be applied to different spatial scales, geographic regions, and taxonomic groups
Summary
A wide range of evidences indicate climate change as one the greatest threats to biodiversity in the 21th century [1]. Global climate change poses new challenges to biodiversity conservation especially because it induces species range shifts yielding additional complexity and uncertainty to definition and implementation of spatially oriented actions for conservation investment [5]. We address this challenge by developing spatial conservation plans that consider the likely species’ range shifts under baseline and future climate scenarios. Climate change effects on biodiversity depend on how species’ distribution will respond to such changes These responses are usually inferred trough ecological niche models ( ENMs) [6]. Techniques for generating ENMs range from very simple bioclimatic envelope models up to complex machine learning-based methods [7]
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