Accident spread and risk propagation mechanism in complex industrial system network

Abstract

Due to the increasing complexity of complex industrial systems, it's indispensable to analyze the process of accident spread and risk propagation on complex systems. An epidemiological model was used to study the phenomena of accident spread and risk propagation in complex industrial systems. It explains the mechanism and pattern of accident spread and risk propagation in complex industrial network, establishes a dynamic model for risk propagation in complex industrial network. The research findings are as follows: (1) In complex industrial systems networks, risk decreases when risk propagation velocity is below a threshold, but it increases and approaches a nonzero equilibrium point when risk propagation exceeds the threshold. (2) The risk propagation threshold is positively linked to information integrity, system robustness, and resilience, while it is negatively associated with the risk preference of management personnel. The risk propagation range decreases as the risk propagation threshold increases. (3) A higher average network degree leads to a higher risk propagation threshold and a smaller risk propagation range. Conversely, network heterogeneity has the opposite effect on the risk propagation threshold and range compared to the average degree. The research conclusions have important theoretical and practical implications for risk management in complex industrial systems.