Accident severity prediction modeling for road safety using random forest algorithm: an analysis of Indian highways

Abstract

Background: Road accidents claim around 1.35 million lives annually, with countries like India facing a significant impact. In 2019, India reported 449,002 road accidents, causing 151,113 deaths and 451,361 injuries. Accident severity modeling helps understand contributing factors and develop preventive strategies. AI models, such as random forest, offer adaptability and higher predictive accuracy compared to traditional statistical models. This study aims to develop a predictive model for traffic accident severity on Indian highways using the random forest algorithm. Methods: A multi-step methodology was employed, involving data collection and preparation, feature selection, training a random forest model, tuning parameters, and evaluating the model using accuracy and F1 score. Data sources included MoRTH and NHAI. Results: The classification model had hyperparameters ’max depth’: 10, ’max features’: ’sqrt’, and ’n estimators’: 100. The model achieved an overall accuracy of 67% and a weighted average F1-score of 0.64 on the training set, with a macro average F1-score of 0.53. Using grid search, a random forest Classifier was fitted with optimal parameters, resulting in 41.47% accuracy on test data. Conclusions: The random forest classifier model predicted traffic accident severity with 67% accuracy on the training set and 41.47% on the test set, suggesting possible bias or imbalance in the dataset. No clear patterns were found between the day of the week and accident occurrence or severity. Performance can be improved by addressing dataset imbalance and refining model hyperparameters. The model often underestimated accident severity, highlighting the influence of external factors. Adopting a sophisticated data recording system in line with MoRTH and IRC guidelines and integrating machine learning techniques can enhance road safety modeling, decision-making, and accident prevention efforts.