Accident Analysis and Identification of Black Spots on the Motorways in Pakistan - a Reliability Analysis Approach

Abstract

The objective of this study is to explore the contributory factors responsible for road accidents and identifies the black spots on the three motorways; M1 (Peshawar-Islamabad), M2 (Islamabad-Lahore), and M3 (Pindi BhattianFaisalabad) in Pakistan. Five years’ road accident data was obtained from the National Highways and Motorway Police (NHMP), Pakistan. The database of this study included six hundred road accidents on a total of 574 kilometers long routes of M1, M2 and M3. The reliability analysis approach was used to locate black spot locations on each motorway. For the visualization and mapping of black spots on each motorway, a Geographic Information System (GIS) was used. The results explored that vehicle condition was the significant contributory factor responsible for the maximum number of road accidents on M1 and M3, while for M2, it was drowsy driving. It is also found that a maximum number of road accidents on M2 and M3 occurred in late-night, while for M1, it was day timing. Furthermore, road accidents were relatively higher in May-July and December on M1 and M2, which shows that extreme weather influences the occurrence of road accidents. On the contrary, no substantial variation of road accidents was examined for M3 month-wise. Finally, black spots on each motorway were located and their georeferenced coordinates were presented for future use. As a result, precautionary measures and provisions are suggested for concerned authorities to mitigate road safety problems.