Abstract

We present an easily accessible model for dispatch and expansion planning of the German multi-modal energy system from today until 2050. The model can be used with low efforts while comparing favorably with historic data and other studies of future developments. More specifically, the model is based on a linear programming partial equilibrium framework and uses a compact set of technologies to ease the comprehension for new modelers. It contains all equations and parameters needed, with the data sources and model assumptions documented in detail. All code and data are openly accessible and usable. The model can reproduce today’s energy mix and its CO2 emissions with deviations below 10%. The generated energy transition path, for an 80% CO2 reduction scenario until 2050, is consistent with leading studies on this topic. Our work thus summarizes the key insights of previous works and can serve as a validated and ready-to-use platform for other modelers to examine additional hypotheses.

Highlights

  • German Energy Transition: An Open, The transition towards climate-friendly, reliable, and affordable energy systems requires deep transformations and the European Commission’s recent “Fit for 55 Package”exemplifies how this requires policy-making on a wide range of topics

  • Energy system modeling is a valuable support to prepare for such progress, since it enables the integrated analysis of multiple technical and economic aspects of the energy transition

  • Three major studies based on detailed quantitative models describe possible paths for the German energy system: the “Integrated Energy Transition” study commissioned by dena [1], “Climate

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Summary

Introduction

German Energy Transition: An Open, The transition towards climate-friendly, reliable, and affordable energy systems requires deep transformations and the European Commission’s recent “Fit for 55 Package”. Frameworks containing the mathematical equations of the common partial equilibrium models [11] include MARKAL [12,13], EFOM [14], TIMES [15], and more recently OSeMOSYS [16], Calliope [17], and oemof [18] All of these models are open-source . The model is a partial equilibrium model formulated as a linear programming (LP) optimization problem It contains both the equations and the required data sets to model the German energy system from today until 2050.

The Model
Mathematical Formulation
Objective Function
Emissions Constraints
Aggregated Variables
Energy and Power Balance Constraints
Operational Constraints
Capacity Constraints
Structure of the Technology Map
Commodities
Conversion Processes
Model Parameters
Technology-Specific Parameters
Model Implementation
Model Validation Results
Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Primary Energy Use
Electricity Generation
Electricity Consumption
Heat Sector
Transport Sector
Discussion and Conclusions
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