ACCESSIBILITY OF REGIONAL HIGHER EDUCATION SYSTEMS IN ACCORDANCE WITH DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS

Abstract

The article analyses the issue of regional higher education systems provision with public funding per students and the degree of the current system public funding distribution correspondence to demographic trends and to the forecast of the number of potential students. The forecast of the population at the age group of 17–21 years showed that starting from 2019 within the Russian higher education system, the applicants’ number will increase. The reason for this is coming out of the 1990s «demographic hole». The current guarantee of financial support for higher education at the expense of public funds (at least 800 students for every 10,000 people from the age group of 17–30 years old) can be carried out until 2024 without increasing the volume of public funding. However, the implementation of this standard is provided only by reducing the age cohort of 25–30 years. The ratio of the predicted values of the number of potential applicants and the value of demand for regional higher education systems allowed us to identify the donor regions, the deficit regions and the recipient regions. The analysis of the current distribution of public funded places between Russian regions made it possible to identify territorial imbalances that negatively affect the ability of school graduates to receive free higher education in their home region.