Accessibility in the regional CGE framework: the effects of major transport infrastructure investments in Poland

Bartlomiej Rokicki,Jonathan M Horridge,Eduardo A Haddad,Marcin Stępniak

doi:10.1007/s11116-019-10076-w

Abstract

Since its EU accession, Poland has invested strongly in the development of fast road transport network. As a result, the total length of modern, high-speed roads has increased from around 500 km in 2005 to over 3000 km in 2015. Yet, while the positive impact of transport infrastructure investment on overall accessibility is unquestionable there are no studies that assess its influence on economic development of particular regions. This paper applies a regional dynamic CGE model to measure the effects of big transport infrastructure investments in Polish NUTS2 regions. We use data on both investment spending and accessibility improvement (expressed as a reduction in transport margins) in order to distinguish between possible short and long term impacts. We find that there exist significant disparities in the impact between regions with high share of major road infrastructure investment undertaken by private investors and the ones that relied fully on public funding. In the case of the former, the lack of analyzed investment would lead to relatively significant decrease in real GDP or average employment. In the case of the latter, the impact of major road infrastructure investment is almost negligible.

Highlights

During decades, big transport infrastructure investments have been used as one of the main tools of the European Union (EU) structural policies
We find that there exist significant disparities in the impact between regions with high share of major road infrastructure investment undertaken by private investors and the ones that relied fully on public funding
Policy results are presented as percentage differences between the counterfactual and the base scenarios: differences caused by shock related to the development of high-speed road network

Summary

Introduction

Big transport infrastructure investments have been used as one of the main tools of the European Union (EU) structural policies. Other studies focus on particular regions within a country without taking into account the remaining areas of that country.4 As a result it is not clear what regions and to what extent really benefit from big transport infrastructure investment in terms of short and long run economic development. The answer to this question seems to be interesting in the case of EU member states that have significantly increase the length of their motorway network in the recent decades and present strong spatial heterogeneity.

Literature review

Findings

Conclusions