Acceptable risk assessment and management of environmental pollution emergency events base on distance model

Abstract

Existing environmental management regulations and assessment methods can help understand and relieve pollution problems greatly affecting the natural world. However, what is lacking is awareness and targeted recommendations for environmental pollution emergency events (EPEEs). Here we analyzed a total of 2164 EPEEs in China from 2000 to 2021 in terms of annual variations, spatial distributions, phases of regional development, and pollution sources. The findings showed that regional economies can have significant impacts on the occurrence of EPEEs. Regarding the four causes of pollution, the contribution from industrial sources was above 80 %, especially water pollution events, for which it accounted for 84 %. The probability of pollution events specifically relates to regional GDP and it was highest in those provinces with the highest GDP rankings, albeit there were marked differences in the industrial structure. In order to better manage EPEEs, an Environment-Emergency Distance Model (EEDM) is proposed. This model uses the Multidimensional psychological distance to quantitatively evaluate the acceptable public risk level after the occurrence of EPEEs. This method provides a basis for pollution prevention and remediation by visualizing the risk acceptable for the public and provides guidance for sustainable environmental development.