Accelerating the Transition to sustainable energy: An intelligent decision support system for generation expansion planning with renewables

Abstract

Sustainable energy planning for power generation with renewables requires a multidimensional approach since it directly impacts several sectors such as the national grid, the environment, and the economy. This paper suggests an intelligent decision based on a combination of the Analytical Hierarchy Process and Artificial Neural Networks to assist policymakers in evaluating future renewable energy investments for power generation. A case study of Bahrain's power system is used to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed planning approach and also to discuss its efficiency. The Analytical Hierarchy Process model outcomes revealed that wind turbines are the most appropriate technology for Bahrain with 32.5 % priority, followed by PV and CSP with 32.2 % and 16.3 %, respectively. Then, the Artificial Neural Networks model was structured based on the generated scenarios from the Analytical Hierarchy Process model, and it reached its best performance after 384 cycles. The integrated approach overcomes some of the Analytical Hierarchy Process's limitations and provides an intelligent tool for advanced assessment of a sustainable power system.