Accelerating Rises of Neurological Deaths in the UK and the Other Western Countries 2000-2015: Urgent Need for Policy Response

Abstract

Background: Increased neurological deaths in Other Western Countries (OWC) sometimes linked to environmental factors, others argue for the Gompertzian hypothesis - people living longer. Analysing people aged 55-74years, under -life-expectancy and by exploring the different accelerating rates in the UK compared to other OWC 2000-2015, resolves the issue. Method: WHO global neurological mortality categories are Nervous Disease Deaths (NDD) and Alzheimer & Other Dementias deaths (AlzD). Age-Standardised-Death-Rates (ASDR) are analysed and the 55-74year olds over the period from which Odds Ratios and chi square tests are calculated. Results: ASDR: Both NDD and AlzD increased substantially (>20%) for both categories in most countries. Highest Male total rates in Finland went from 481per million (pm) to 999pm; USA 330pm to 557pm and UK 217pm to 531pm. Highest Female ASDR was Finland 462pm to 938pm, USA 325pm to 606pm and UK 192pm to 558pm. UK had significantly greater rises for both sexes than all OWC. Over fifteen years the combined numbers of UK neurological deaths went from 24,601 to 103,550 - the USA 174,708 to 436,438. 55-74year olds: Male NDD rates were higher than AlzD in every country. Combined rates rose substantially in 13 countries, notable increases (>50%) in Finland, Germany, Japan, Netherlands, Sweden, USA but Canada and French rates fell. UK rises were greater than 11 other OWC. Female NDD higher than AlzD in every country. Combined rates rose substantially in 13 countries, notably so in Austria, Germany, Japan, Netherlands, UK but Belgium and France fell. UK had significant bigger increases than 12 other OWC. UK combined 55-74year numbers rose 94%, total numbers more than trebled in fifteen years. Implications: Rates of neurological deaths are accelerating, especially in UK and America in just fifteen years. Urgent action is needed to understand the causes for these increases. Funding Statement: Study had no external funding. Declaration of Interests: The authors have no conflict or vested interest in the study.