Accelerating electric vehicle uptake favours greenhouse gas over air pollutant emissions

Abstract

The rapid uptake of new vehicle technologies will change the environmental impact of road transport. The emissions produced in power plants supplying electric vehicles (EVs) and vehicular non-exhaust PM2.5 emissions leaves the benefits of EVs unclear. We develop a fleet turnover model to assess how different vehicle technologies, the rate of technological change, and changing transport demand impact vehicle and power station CO2eq and air pollutant emissions. By 2050, the transition to EVs reduces yearly CO2eq emissions by 98% and cumulative CO2eq emissions by over 50%; accelerating or delaying EV uptake by 5 years changes these results by 1% and 17%, respectively. By 2050, EVs reduce annual NOx emissions by 97%, but have little impact on PM2.5 due to vehicular non-exhaust emissions. Accelerating or delaying EV uptake had little impact on air pollution emissions. Reducing vehicle kilometres has the potential to reduce non-exhaust PM2.5 emissions by 20% in the long-term.