Accelerating Adoption of Disruptive Technologies: Impact of COVID-19 on Intentions to Use On-Demand Autonomous Vehicle Mobility Services

Abstract

One of the most notable global transportation trends is the accelerated pace of development in vehicle automation technologies. Uncertainty surrounds the future of automated mobility as there is no clear consensus on potential adoption patterns, ownership versus shared use status, and travel impacts. Adding to this uncertainty is the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic which has triggered profound changes in mobility behaviors as well as accelerated the adoption of new technologies at an unprecedented rate. Accordingly, this study examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on people’s intention to adopt the emerging technology of autonomous vehicles (AVs). Using data from a survey disseminated in June 2020 to 700 respondents in the United States, a difference-in-difference regression is performed to analyze the shift in willingness to use AVs as part of an on-demand mobility service before and during the pandemic. The results reveal that the COVID-19 pandemic had a positive and highly significant impact on the intention to use AVs. This shift is present regardless of tech-savviness, gender, or urban/rural household location. Results indicate that individuals who are younger, politically left-leaning, and frequent users of on-demand modes of travel are expected to be more likely to use AVs once offered. Understanding the systematic segment and attribute variation determining the increase in consideration of AVs is important for policy making, as these effects provide a guide to predicting adoption of AVs—once available—and to identify segments of the population likely to be more resistant to adopting AVs.