Abstract

Many ancient landslides in the upper reaches of the Jinsha River seriously threaten the safety of residents on both sides of the river. The river erosion and groundwater infiltration have greatly reduced the stability of the ancient landslides along the Jinsha River and revived many large landslides. Studying their deformation characteristics and mechanisms and predicting possible failure processes are significant to the safety of residents and hydropower projects. We used SBAS-InSAR and three-dimensional decomposition techniques in our study. Our results showed that the trailing edge and middle part of the landslide have rapidly deformed. The maximum vertical annual displacement rate was 12 cm/a period from July 2017 to July 2019. Correlation analysis showed that creep deformation is closely related to the river damming of the Baige landslide events and that the rising river level was an important factor in the resurrection and accelerated destruction of the Xiaomojiu landslide. As a result, we predicted the possible failure process of the Xiaomojiu landslide, which might have lasted 80 s and eventually formed a landslide deposit with a height of about 150 m, a length of approximately 1500 m, and an average width of 450 m. Our results provide data references for displacement monitoring and instability risk simulation of large landslides along the Jinsha River.

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