Accelerated Climate Changes in Weddell Sea Region of Antarctica Detected by Extreme Values Theory

Giuseppe Prete,Vincenzo Carbone,Fabio Lepreti,Vincenzo Capparelli

doi:10.3390/atmos12020209

Giuseppe Prete, Vincenzo Carbone + Show 2 more

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https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12020209

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Abstract

On 13 February 2020, The Guardian, followed by many other newspapers and websites, published the news that on 9 February 2020, Antarctic air temperatures rose to about 20.75 ∘C in a base logged at Seymour Island. This value has not yet been validated by the WMO (World Meteorological Organization), but it is not the first time that an extreme temperature was registered in these locations. The recorded temperatures have often been described as “abnormal and anomalous”, according to a statement made by scientists working at the Antarctic bases. Since polar regions have shown the most rapid rates of climate change in recent years, this abnormality is of primary interest in the context of vulnerability of the Antarctic to climate changes. Using data detected at different Antarctic bases, we investigate yearly maxima and minima of recorded temperatures, in order to establish whether they can be considered as usual extreme events or abnormal. We found evidence for disagreement with the extreme values theory, indicating accelerated climate changes in the Antarctic, that is, a local warming rate that is much faster than global averages.

Highlights

Polar regions are the most sensitive world zone to ongoing impacts of climate change, showing the most rapid rates of warming in recent years [1]
We investigate the maxima and minima of temperatures recorded at two different Antarctic bases using the Extreme Values Theory (EVT)
Growing evidence for accelerating climate changes, presented and discussed in recent years, suggests that the rate of change depends on local geographic conditions

Summary

Introduction

Polar regions are the most sensitive world zone to ongoing impacts of climate change, showing the most rapid rates of warming in recent years [1]. In the context of climate change, probability distribution functions (PDFs) of events, as for example, land surface temperature extremes, are either shifted to higher values or display enhancements of both tails. In both cases, extreme events acquire a greater probability of occurrence, and this is observable locally on relatively short time scales. The warming is happening on longer time scales in the Antarctic Peninsula and West Antarctica but is mostly absent in East Antarctica [4,5,6].

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