Abstract
Abstract. Wildfires are a complex phenomenon emerging from interactions between air, heat, and vegetation, and while they are an important component of many ecosystems’ dynamics, they pose great danger to those ecosystems, as well as human life and property. Wildfire simulation models are an important research tool that help further our understanding of fire behaviour and can allow experimentation without recourse to live fires. Current fire simulation models fit into two general categories: empirical models and physical models. We present a new modelling approach that uses agent-based modelling to combine the complexity possible with physical models with the ease of computation of empirical models. Our model represents the fire front as a set of moving agents that respond to, and interact with, vegetation, wind, and terrain. We calibrate the model using two simulated fires and one real fire and validate the model against another real fire and the interim behaviour of the real calibration fire. Our model successfully replicates these fires, with a figure of merit on par with simulations by the Prometheus simulation model. Our model is a stepping-stone in using agent-based modelling for fire behaviour simulation, as we demonstrate the ability of agent-based modelling to replicate fire behaviour through emergence alone.
Highlights
Fire is an integral part of ecosystems the world over and poses a serious danger to human life and property (Bowman et al, 2011; Moritz et al, 2010; Brenkert-Smith et al, 2013; Butry et al, 2001; Carroll et al, 2006; Chuvieco et al, 2014; Kochi et al, 2010; Richardson et al, 2012)
To test whether the fire–wind feedback has a meaningful influence on fire behaviour in Agent-Based Wildfire Simulation Environment (ABWiSE), we perform these simulations with the w1 parameter
Through a complex systems approach focusing on key interactions and conceiving of fire as a set of mobile agents, this study demonstrates the potential of agent-based modelling for use in simulating forest fire behaviour
Summary
Fire is an integral part of ecosystems the world over and poses a serious danger to human life and property (Bowman et al, 2011; Moritz et al, 2010; Brenkert-Smith et al, 2013; Butry et al, 2001; Carroll et al, 2006; Chuvieco et al, 2014; Kochi et al, 2010; Richardson et al, 2012). Anthropogenic climate change has exacerbated this danger by lengthening growing seasons and increasing the risk of drought (Flannigan et al, 2016; Lozano et al, 2017), leading to more frequent and more extreme fires in many parts of the world (Chuvieco et al, 2016; Kirchmeier-Young et al, 2019, 2017). The use of controlled burning has, for a very long time (Gott, 2005; Roos et al, 2021), helped to mitigate the risks of extreme fires and to maintain forest health (Boer et al, 2009; Camp and Krawchuk, 2017; Fernandes and Botelho, 2003). Fire behaviour models are an important research tool that help further our understanding of fire behaviour and can allow experimentation without recourse to live fires (Hoffman et al, 2018). Modelling at the scale of individual fires is important for both the study of fire regimes (Keane et al, 2013; Parisien et al, 2019) and the operational management of active fires (Finney, 1999; Lawson et al, 1985; Tymstra et al, 2010; Van Wagner, 1974)
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