Abstract

Abstract

These two articles go nicely together in warning people of the dangers of “high‐tech fever.” The first discusses the repeated failures of market research firms in predicting technological markets. The author describes how the estimates that firms generate become gospel as the media and other researchers exploit people's “unquenchable thirst” for the apparent rigor of quantified data.Companies like Knight‐Ridder ($55 million sunk in videotext) might have been interested to know that market research vendors routinely overstate their projections. One reason is that the data are obtained from technology producers and scientists with an interest in seeing inflated sales estimates. Another point is that the typical response rate to market research polls is about 3%.In addition to methodological questions, Brody notes that market researchers know their buyers “want the numbers to support a decision to enter a new business” and that there will be difficulty selling negative or conservative reports. They also preach a gospel that “self‐delusion is necessary” or there will be little innovation.A review of specific forecasts highlights the importance of “looking sidewise” as well as ahead. Specifically, the author alerts readers to the dangers of trying to understand developments in competitive or supportive technologies.The second article is a compendium of technologies that people expected to “make it big.” Brief reviews are presented on: Nuclear‐powered planes. (Protection against an explosive crash raised weight to an exorbitant extreme.) Jetpacks. (There was no military market for an easy target.) Quadraphonic sound. (It provided little improvement.) Eight‐track tapes. (They were mechanically too complex and competitively unnecessary.) Josephson junctions, Electromolecular propulsion and Fusion energy. (They have never worked commercially.) Food irradiation. (The public's fears encourage regulatory obstacles.) Rotary engines. (The seals didn't work on most models.) Bubble memory. (The product champion retired.)