Abstract

Introduction: The cost effectiveness of smoking-cessation interventions after ischemic stroke and TIA has not been evaluated. We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis of smoking-cessation interventions in this population. Methods: We constructed a decision tree model to compare brief counseling alone to 3 interventions: varenicline, any pharmacotherapy with intensive counseling, and monetary incentives. Direct health care costs of interventions and outcomes were modeled. The outcomes were recurrent stroke, myocardial infarction, and death using a 5-year horizon. Estimates and variance for the base case (42% cessation), costs and effectiveness of interventions, and outcome rates were imputed from the stroke literature. Using standard techniques, we calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) and net-monetary benefits (NMB). An intervention was considered cost effective if the ICER was less than the standard willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) or when the NMB was maximized. Sensitivity analyses and a probabilistic Monte Carlo simulation modeled the impact of parameter uncertainty, including for the base case cessation rate and costs and effectiveness of interventions (TreeAge Pro). Results: All three interventions were cost effective based on the ICER: varenicline - $7,422/QALY, pharmacotherapy with counseling - $14,550/QALY, and monetary incentives - $23,280/QALY. In one-way sensitivity analyses, interventions costing up to $1,729 remained cost-effective. In a two-way sensitivity analysis varying the cost and effectiveness of smoking-cessation interventions, all three interventions were cost effective based on NMB (Figure). In 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations, smoking-cessation interventions were cost effective 90% of the time, as compared to brief counseling alone. Conclusion: Smoking-cessation strategies are cost effective in secondary prevention after stroke and TIA.

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