Abstract
Introduction: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a major risk factor for cerebral ischemia in North America. Atrial ectopy has been associated with incident AF and increased stroke risk on short-duration ECG monitoring. The objective of this study was to characterize the relationship between the burden of atrial ectopy with future AF, stroke, and cardiovascular events on prolonged ECG monitoring. Methods: A retrospective, observational study was conducted at a single centre enrolling patients >18 years old referred from TIA clinic. Data was collected from 7- and 14-day Holter monitor reports, patient charts, and cardiac investigations. The final sample included 1124 patients; a subgroup of 759 patients had echocardiograms. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression determined the odds ratio (OR) of developing the composite outcome (AF, TIA/stroke, ACS, death) or secondary outcomes (AF or TIA/stroke). Results: The population was high-risk with a mean CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc of 4.0 (±1.8); during 1-year of follow-up, the primary outcome occurred amongst 116 (10.3%) patients. Univariate analysis ORs are displayed in Table 1. There was a statistically significant relationship (p<0.001) between percentage of PACs and the composite outcome (OR 4.066), and AF (11.886) for patients with 2-5% PACs. PAC runs/day was significant if >5/day for AF (OR 5.989, p<0.01) and for the composite (OR 2.231, p<0.05). Long PAC runs (>30 beats) also had significant ORs for AF (2.849, p<0.01) and the composite (5.320, p<0.01). In the subgroup analysis, reduced ejection fraction had an OR of 2.172 (1.407-5.771) for the composite outcome, and atrial dilatation had an OR of 2.778 (1.390-5.551) for AF. Conclusions: Increased burden of atrial ectopy is associated with increased odds of developing AF and a composite of cardiovascular events. Patients with increased ectopy should be considered for further, future ECG monitoring and risk stratification with echocardiogram.
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