Abstract P4-12-06: A mammographic density prediction model using environmental factors, endogenous hormones and growth factors in Japanese women

Abstract

Abstract The incidence of breast cancer in Japanese women has doubled in all age groups over the past two decades, making it important to evaluate breast cancer risk factors in Japanese women. It is well known that mammographic density is positively associated with breast cancer risk in Western countries, and mammographic density is known to be affected by some environmental factors, serum hormones, and growth factors. We performed stepwise variable selection in a multiple regression model with fifteen independent variables as described below, based on the Akaike information criteria (AIC) to build a mammographic density prediction model using a dataset of 1191 women (913 women with breast cancer and 278 disease-free controls). The variables included were: environmental risk factors (body-mass index (BMI), age at menarche, pregnancy, age at first birth, breastfeeding, family history of breast cancer, age at menopause, use of hormone replacement therapy, alcohol intake and smoking), serum hormones and growth factors (estradiol, testosterone, prolactin, insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF1) and IGF binding protein 3 (IGFBP3)) and mammographic density. The resulting prediction model is: Mammographic density = + 0.000476 (IGF1) −0.0605 (testosterone) − 0.0508 (IGFBP3) − 0.00683 (age) − 0.0175 (BMI) + 0.00883 (age at menarche) − 0.0153 (breast feeding), (R2 = 0.336). In this model, IGF1, testosterone, IGFBP3, age, BMI, age at menarche, and breastfeeding were considered to be important factors. IGF1 and age at menarche were positively associated with mammographic density, while on the other hand testosterone, IGFBP3, age, BMI, and breast feeding were negatively associated with mammographic density. Further studies are required to build a modified model incorporating serial measurements of serum hormones and growth factors to take into account time-dependent changes of serum hormones and growth factors, and to assess its accuracy. Citation Information: Cancer Res 2012;72(24 Suppl):Abstract nr P4-12-06.