Abstract P280: Changes in Food Prices Improve Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) Outcomes

Abstract

Introduction: Changes in food prices can lead to healthier dietary patterns. Recent meta-analyses suggest the responses differ by food category with respect to impact on disease outcome. Hypothesis: We tested the hypothesis that a 10% subsidy on price of fruits, vegetables and whole grains, and a 10% tax on sugar-sweetened beverages, would have differential effects on CVD mortality, non-fatal MI and stroke, and diabetes over a 5-year period through a 20-year period in the U.S. Methods: We used an individual-based microsimulation CVD risk prediction model of a million adults created from NHANES sample (aged 35+). Model inputs included patient risk factor information, CVD risk equations, and intervention effectiveness data. The baseline cohort was expanded by adding additional groups of 35-year olds annually to produce cross-sectional outcomes from 2015-2035. Results: Using a conservative estimate of population growth, we project that the subsidy-increased consumption of fruits and vegetables would lead to 5- and 20-year reductions of CVD deaths by 8% and 10%, reductions in non-fatal MI by 16% and 18%, and reductions in non-fatal stroke by 25% and 24%, respectively. Subsidy-increased whole grain consumption would have corresponding reductions of 2.5% and 3% for CVD deaths and 9.1% and 9.7% for MI (Table). Tax-induced decreased consumption of sugar sweetened beverages would reduce 5- and 20-year CVD deaths by 0.8% and 1.3%, MI by 2.5% and 2.5%, stroke by 1.8% and 2.3%, and diabetes by 2.6% and 9.8%. Combined these numbers translate to prevention of over 3.5 million CVD deaths and over 4 million combined CVD events by 2035, assuming independent benefits for each food group. Conclusions: Pricing interventions resulting in differential changes in dietary habits can significantly reduce CVD outcomes in the U.S by different amounts. Further research should be done in assessing the cost-effectiveness of applying these price changes, as well as the compliance of the population to maintain healthy dietary habits over the 20-year horizon.