Abstract

Introduction: Emerging evidence suggests a role of subjective well-being (SWB) in modifying the risk of developing cardiovascular disease (CVD), while supportive data from prospective studies are scarce. Hypothesis: Low SWB is independently associated with higher incidence of CVD, comparable in magnitude to several established traditional risk factors. Methods: The study included a total of 154,217 women and men from the UK Biobank study, free of CVD at baseline and with measurements of SWB based on general happiness, personal health, family relationships, friendships, and financial situation, followed up until May 31, 2021. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate associations between SWB and incident CVD. The relative importance of SWB in terms of predicting outcomes was measured by explained R 2 values. Results: During a median follow-up of 11.3 years, there were 11,662 incident CVD events (8,474 coronary heart disease [CHD] cases and 1,804 ischemic strokes). Individuals with low SWB had an approximately 2-fold higher risk of CVD compared to those with high SWB (Hazard Ratio [95% Confidence Interval], 1.99 [1.75-2.27] for CVD, 1.98 [1.71-2.30] for CHD, and 1.90 [1.34-2.69] for ischemic stroke) after adjusting for traditional risk factors. Of 12 factors examined, SWB was ranked as the fourth-strongest CVD risk factor, following hypertension, smoking, and body mass index ( Figure ). SWB was ranked as the sixth- and third-strongest risk factor for CHD and ischemic stroke, respectively. Conclusions: Our study indicates that SWB is robustly associated with the risk of incident CVD, potentially as one of the strongest modifiable risk factors for CVD prediction.

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