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Abstract
Objectives: To estimate the potential health gains, costs, and cost-effectiveness of a mandatory limit on industrial trans fatty acids (iTFA) in the Nigerian food supply. Methods: We used Markov cohort models to estimate the effect on ischemic heart disease (IHD) burden, costs, and cost-effectiveness of a mandatory iTFA-limit (≤2% of all fats) for foods in Nigeria. Data on demographics, IHD epidemiology, and trans-fatty acid intake were derived from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study. We calculated the IHD burden attributable to iTFA by comparing the current trans-fatty acid intake to counterfactual settings with complete elimination of iTFA intake. Policy implementation costs (including government costs for legislation and monitoring, and industry costs for product reformulation), avoided IHD events and deaths, health-adjusted life years (HALYs) gained, and healthcare costs saved were estimated over 10 years and lifetime of the Nigerian population. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios using net costs (i.e., implementation costs minus healthcare cost savings) and HALYs gained (both discounted at 3%) were used to assess cost-effectiveness. Results: Over the first 10 years, elimination of iTFA intake was estimated to prevent 9,996 (95% uncertainty interval: 8,870; 11,118): IHD deaths and 66,569 (58,862; 74,083) IHD events, and to save 90 million USD (78; 102) in total healthcare costs. The corresponding estimates over the lifetime were 259,934 (228,736; 290,191), 479,308 (95% UI: 420,472; 538,177), and ~518 (450; 587). Policy implementation costs (government plus industry) were estimated as 18 million USD (12; 25) over the first 10 years, and 27 million USD (20; 35) over the population lifetime. The intervention was estimated to be cost-saving. Findings were robust across several deterministic sensitivity analyses (Figure). Conclusions: Our findings support legislating a mandatory limit of iTFAs as a cost-saving strategy to avert substantial numbers of IHD events and deaths in Nigeria.
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