Abstract P206: Modeling The Impact Of The Tobacco 21 Policy In El Paso, Texas

Abstract

Introduction: On December 20, 2019, the federal Tobacco 21 (T21) law was passed. This new legislation raised the minimum legal purchase age for tobacco products from 18 to 21 years. Thirty-three states in the US have implemented the law, but 19 states have yet to enact it. Public health practitioners and policymakers need more evidence on the impact of the T21 Policy at the local level to encourage adequate enforcement. Objective: To project the health and economic impact of the T21 Policy in El Paso, Texas, which is the focus area of the Heart Racial and Ethnic Approaches to Community Health (REACH) Program implemented by the American Heart Association. Methods: Using an agent-based model of smoking behavior and a microsimulation model of cardiovascular disease, we projected the long-term effects of the T21 Policy on smoking prevalence and cardiovascular health outcomes in El Paso, Texas. Population characteristics and model parameters were estimated based on data from the National Health Interview Survey, US Life Tables, and the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Annual smoking prevalence was derived from the Texas Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and County Health Rankings. The policy effects were determined from established effect sizes from published literature. Results: The estimated prevalence of smoking in El Paso, Texas decreased by 2.7% among 18-24 year olds and by 5.2% among 25-44 year olds in 20 years with the implementation of the T21 policy; these results are statistically significant (p<0.01 for both population groups). Our results also revealed that the T21 Policy could prevent cardiovascular disease such as coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke. Specifically, compared to the no-policy situation, the policy would prevent 5.4 CHD events (from 305.2 to 299.8) per 1,000 adults and 10.8 stroke events (from 232.6 to 221.8) per 1,000 adults over lifetime. The model also projected a reduction in health care costs due to the T21 Policy, as the estimated lifetime health care costs decreased from $425,672 per person without the T21 Policy to $423,376 per person with the policy. Conclusions: This study provides important information for policymakers to understand the potential impacts of the T21 Policy in El Paso, Texas. The projected decreases in tobacco use, cardiovascular disease, and health care costs as a result of the T21 Policy could assist in advocating for T21 Policy enactment in other areas of the US.