Abstract P180: Ten-Year and Lifetime Cardiovascular Risk and Subclinical Cardiovascular Disease in Mexican Women

Abstract

Introduction: Estimates of Lifetime Cardiovascular Risk may identify individuals with different levels of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk within the low short-term risk (10-year risk) for coronary heart disease (CHD) category defined by the Framingham Risk Score. Evidence of the applicability of this risk stratification in relatively young people is limited, especially among Hispanics. Hypothesis: We assessed the hypothesis that the risk categories from the combination of these two risk stratification scales are positively associated with subclinical CVD in Mexican women. Methods: We calculated 10-year CHD risk using the Framingham Risk Score and lifetime CVD risk based on risk factor burden in 759 women in Southern Mexico from the Mexican Teachers’ Cohort and evaluated the presence of subclinical CVD. We evaluated common carotid intima-media thickness (IMT), ankle-brachial index (ABI), and inter-arm blood pressure difference (IAD) using standard protocols and performed laboratory analyses from a fasting blood draw. We defined three risk strata: Low 10-year (<10%)/Low lifetime risk, Low 10-year (<10%)/High lifetime risk, and High 10-year risk (≥10%). We evaluated outcome measures continuously and estimated the prevalence of subclinical CVD for each risk strata. We defined subclinical CVD as IMT ≥0.8 mm or atheromatous plaque, ABI <0.90, systolic IAD ≥20 mmHg or diastolic IAD ≥10 mmHg. We calculated the sensibility and specificity of the predicted risk categories to detect subclinical CVD. Results: Women evaluated had a mean age of 48.4 years, 22.5% (n=171) were classified as High 10-year CHD Risk, 58.8% (n=446) as Low 10-year/High lifetime risk and 18.7% (n=142) as Low 10-year/Low lifetime risk. We observed significant increase in IMT measurement according to increasing risk categories: 0.656 mm (±0.062), 0.704mm (±0.085), and 0.739mm (±0.089) (p= <0.001). We found similar significant trends in ABI (p= 0.001), systolic IAD (p= <0.001), and diastolic IAD (p= <0.001). We observed a significant higher prevalence of at least one subclinical CVD as the risk category increased: 10.6%, 26.9%, and 45.6% (p= <0.001). The sensitivity and specificity of the combination of these scores to detect subclinical CVD was of 93% and 23%, whereas only considering the high vs. low 10-year risk categories these parameters were 37% and 83% respectively. Conclusion: The combination of these short-term and lifetime risk scores accurately identify differences in objective measurements of subclinical cardiovascular disease in Mexican women. Further calibration of these risk scores is needed to incorporate them in the risk assessment tools to identify individuals at risk for the implementation of preventive strategies in the Mexican population.