Abstract No. 243: Alpha-fetoprotein response correlates with EASL response and survival in hepatocellular carcinoma patients treated with locoregional therapies

Abstract

PurposeAlpha-fetoprotein (AFP) is a universally recognized tumor marker in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Its utility in assessing response to treatment remains controversial. We sought to study the: a) correlation between AFP response and imaging response, and b) ability of AFP, European Association for the Study of the Liver disease (EASL) and World Health Organization (WHO) response guidelines to predict survival outcomes in patients with HCC.Materials and Methods629 HCC patients were treated with transarterial locoregional therapies over an 11-year period. To eliminate confounding factors, we included patients with single tumors, baseline AFP≥200 ng/mL, and no extrahepatic disease; this identified our study cohort of 51 patients. AFP response was defined as >50% decrease from baseline; this was correlated to EASL and WHO response criteria by Kappa agreement, Pearson correlation and receiver operating curves. Survival analyses were performed by Landmark, risk-of-death and Mantel-Byar methodologies.ResultsThree months post-treatment, AFP and EASL response correlated well (Kappa: 0.83; Pearson: 0.84); the sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of AFP in predicting EASL response at 3 months were 96.6%, 85.7%, 92.3% and 93.3% respectively. Correlation with WHO response was low. From the 3-month landmark, WHO, EASL and AFP responders survived longer than nonresponders (P=0.006, 0.0001 and <0.0001 respectively). The risk of death was lower for EASL and AFP responders by both risk-of-death and Mantel-Byar methodologies (P<0.05).ConclusionResponse by AFP and EASL is a strong predictor of survival outcomes. AFP correlates with imaging response assessment by EASL guidelines. Achieving AFP response should be one of the therapeutic intents of locoregional therapies. PurposeAlpha-fetoprotein (AFP) is a universally recognized tumor marker in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Its utility in assessing response to treatment remains controversial. We sought to study the: a) correlation between AFP response and imaging response, and b) ability of AFP, European Association for the Study of the Liver disease (EASL) and World Health Organization (WHO) response guidelines to predict survival outcomes in patients with HCC. Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) is a universally recognized tumor marker in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Its utility in assessing response to treatment remains controversial. We sought to study the: a) correlation between AFP response and imaging response, and b) ability of AFP, European Association for the Study of the Liver disease (EASL) and World Health Organization (WHO) response guidelines to predict survival outcomes in patients with HCC. Materials and Methods629 HCC patients were treated with transarterial locoregional therapies over an 11-year period. To eliminate confounding factors, we included patients with single tumors, baseline AFP≥200 ng/mL, and no extrahepatic disease; this identified our study cohort of 51 patients. AFP response was defined as >50% decrease from baseline; this was correlated to EASL and WHO response criteria by Kappa agreement, Pearson correlation and receiver operating curves. Survival analyses were performed by Landmark, risk-of-death and Mantel-Byar methodologies. 629 HCC patients were treated with transarterial locoregional therapies over an 11-year period. To eliminate confounding factors, we included patients with single tumors, baseline AFP≥200 ng/mL, and no extrahepatic disease; this identified our study cohort of 51 patients. AFP response was defined as >50% decrease from baseline; this was correlated to EASL and WHO response criteria by Kappa agreement, Pearson correlation and receiver operating curves. Survival analyses were performed by Landmark, risk-of-death and Mantel-Byar methodologies. ResultsThree months post-treatment, AFP and EASL response correlated well (Kappa: 0.83; Pearson: 0.84); the sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of AFP in predicting EASL response at 3 months were 96.6%, 85.7%, 92.3% and 93.3% respectively. Correlation with WHO response was low. From the 3-month landmark, WHO, EASL and AFP responders survived longer than nonresponders (P=0.006, 0.0001 and <0.0001 respectively). The risk of death was lower for EASL and AFP responders by both risk-of-death and Mantel-Byar methodologies (P<0.05). Three months post-treatment, AFP and EASL response correlated well (Kappa: 0.83; Pearson: 0.84); the sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of AFP in predicting EASL response at 3 months were 96.6%, 85.7%, 92.3% and 93.3% respectively. Correlation with WHO response was low. From the 3-month landmark, WHO, EASL and AFP responders survived longer than nonresponders (P=0.006, 0.0001 and <0.0001 respectively). The risk of death was lower for EASL and AFP responders by both risk-of-death and Mantel-Byar methodologies (P<0.05). ConclusionResponse by AFP and EASL is a strong predictor of survival outcomes. AFP correlates with imaging response assessment by EASL guidelines. Achieving AFP response should be one of the therapeutic intents of locoregional therapies. Response by AFP and EASL is a strong predictor of survival outcomes. AFP correlates with imaging response assessment by EASL guidelines. Achieving AFP response should be one of the therapeutic intents of locoregional therapies.