Abstract MP76: Assessing the Impact of the "Health Bucks" Program on Cardiovascular Disease in New York City: A Modeling Study

Abstract

Background: Low fruit and vegetable (FV) consumption is considered one of the leading causes of deteriorating health outcomes, and has been linked to obesity, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease. Yet, few adults in New York City (NYC) consume the daily recommended amounts. In order to address the need for fresh and affordable fruits and vegetables, the NYC Department of Health and Mental Hygiene has implemented the “Health Bucks” program, which provides low-income population with coupons that can be used to purchase fruits and vegetetabls. Previous studies have shown the impact of the Health Bucks program on fruit and vegetable consumption; however, it is unclear how the program would influence cardiovascular health and the associated health care costs in the long term. Objective: To estimate the health and economic impact of the Health Bucks program using a validated microsimulation model of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in NYC. Methods: We used the Simulations for Health Improvement and Equity (SHINE) CVD Model to estimate the impact of the Health Bucks program on lifetime CVD events and direct medical costs (2019 USD). We considered different program strengths by assuming the program can reduce the cost of fruits and vegetables by 20%, 30%, and 40%. Population characteristics were estimated based on data from the 2013-2014 NYC Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. CVD risk factor trajectories and risk of incident CVD events were derived from six pooled longitudinal US cohorts. Policy effects were derived from the literature. We run 1,000 simulations to account for uncertainties in the parameter. We discounted costs by 3% and reported health care costs in 2019 dollars. Results: A Health Bucks program that can reduce the cost of fruits and vegetables by 20%, 30%, and 40% would prevent 2,690 (95% CI: -14,793, 20,173), 27,386 (95% CI: 9,967, 44,805), and 50,014 (95% CI: 15,227, 50,014) coronary heart disease events, respectively, over the simulated lifetimes of the NYC population. The program would also prevent 47,469 (95% CI: 35,008, 59,931), 59,127 (95% CI: 46,676, 71,579), and 85,359 (95% CI: 72,902, 97,815) stroke events based on the price reduction level. The program would result in savings in health care costs, ranged from $937 million to $1.8 billion based on the price reduction level over the lifetime or from $19 million to $37 million annually. Conclusions: We projected that the Health Bucks program could prevent a significant number of CVD events among adults in NYC and yield substantial health care cost savings. Public health practitioners and policymakers may consider adopting this program in other locations.