Abstract
Abstract Breast cancer incidence in the United States rose until 1999 then fell. This decline was most apparent among older women with easier-to-treat estrogen receptor (ER) positive tumors; reported incidence of more aggressive ER negative cancers was stable. However, these analyses did not account for missing ER data, which can reduce statistical power and more importantly bias the observed trends. We, therefore, developed an imputation method to correct for missing ER using a national sample of 379,323 breast cancers diagnosed from 1992 through 2007. After correction, current incidence of ER positive tumors was surprisingly similar to pre-1999 incidence, whereas ER negative cancers fell steadily by 1.8% per year. We show for the first time that the recent national decline in breast cancer overall reflects an unexpected drop in ER negative rates more than any changes in ER positive rates. These refined results challenge past interpretations and have the potential to better gauge breast cancer trends. Citation Format: {Authors}. {Abstract title} [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 102nd Annual Meeting of the American Association for Cancer Research; 2011 Apr 2-6; Orlando, FL. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2011;71(8 Suppl):Abstract nr LB-445. doi:10.1158/1538-7445.AM2011-LB-445
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