Abstract IA018: Opportunity for interception as a driver of benefit in cancer early detection: implications for multi-cancer early detection testing

Abstract

Abstract Early detection cannot succeed unless there is adequate opportunity for cancer to be diagnosed and intercepted within its early preclinical phase. An understanding of opportunity for early detection and interception is therefore critical in predicting potential mortality reduction due to screening. Opportunity is not directly observable but may be learned using data from prospectively screened cohorts and populations. In this presentation I will share a history of methods for learning about early detection opportunity and will present examples of how we have built on this work to study opportunity for early detection in prostate and breast cancer. I will describe a generic model of how opportunity and sensitivity combine to produce stage shift and mortality reduction and will briefly explore whether a lack of opportunity may have been behind the results of the UCKCTOCS trial. I will use this learning to motivate why I believe a prospective study to investigate opportunity for multi-cancer detection and interception is warranted before or alongside ongoing and planned screening trials. This work in in collaboration with Roman Gulat i and Lukas Owens (Fred Hutch), Jane Lange (OHSU) and Marc Ryser (Duke University). We acknowledge funding from the National Cancer Institute and collaboration with and data from the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium Citation Format: Ruth Etzioni, Roman Gulati, Lukas Owens, Jane Lange, Marc D. Ryser. Opportunity for interception as a driver of benefit in cancer early detection: implications for multi-cancer early detection testing. [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the AACR Special Conference: Precision Prevention, Early Detection, and Interception of Cancer; 2022 Nov 17-19; Austin, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Can Prev Res 2023;16(1 Suppl): Abstract nr IA018.