Abstract IA016: Bayesian phylodynamics to quantify cancer growth across space and time

Abstract

Abstract Phylogenetics has traditionally inferred shared genetic histories of species over macroevolutionary time. With the expansion of cancer multi-region and single-cell sequencing, phylogenetic approaches have found new uses mapping the evolutionary histories of tumors as well. Recently developed “phylodynamic” methods that integrate phylogenetic and population dynamic modeling offer further promise - uncovering cancer growth dynamics from the topologies and branch lengths of tumor trees. Here, I discuss two recent efforts in this area: 1) Heterogeneous growth rates across a tumor become encoded in the branching patterns of phylogenetic trees built from multi-region sequencing. We introduce a cancer-specific extension to a class of multi-state birth-death models to infer these growth rate differences across space. We apply our model (SDevo) to a sample of hepatocellular carcinomas and infer that these tumor peripheries grow 2-6 times faster than their interiors. 2) Tumors experience differential growth rates over time as they acquire new driver mutations and invade their surrounding tissues, and these growth dynamics similarly leave characteristic signatures in their phylogenies. We employ Bayesian skyline models to dissect tumor growth dynamics from a dataset of diverse cancers and reveal variation in cancer growth rates over time. As cancer sequencing continues to proliferate, phylodynamic approaches are poised to reveal new quantitative insights into cancer growth dynamics across time and space. Citation Format: Maya Lewinsohn, Trevor Bedford, Nicola F. Müller, Alison Feder. Bayesian phylodynamics to quantify cancer growth across space and time [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the AACR Special Conference in Cancer Research: Translating Cancer Evolution and Data Science: The Next Frontier; 2023 Dec 3-6; Boston, Massachusetts. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(3 Suppl_2):Abstract nr IA016.