Abstract B35: Ovarian cancer incidence projections in the United States: Expected increases through 2030.

Abstract

Abstract Background: Several reports have shown that age-standardized ovarian cancer rates are decreasing in recent years in the United States. While these reported rates are useful to compare trends across certain groups, they do not always accurately convey the burden of ovarian cancer, nor do they provide information on the actual numbers of ovarian cases diagnosed each year. Since age is the greatest risk factor for ovarian cancer, and the older population of the Unites States is growing, the accurate assessment of future ovarian cancer trends is important in order to plan for clinical care needs and allocate resources effectively. Objective: To assess future trends in the United States ovarian cancer burden by projecting the number of new cases of ovarian and fallopian tube cancer cases diagnosed through the year 2030. Methods: We used observed incidence data from 1982-2011 from the SEER program, and population projections based on the 2010 US Census to predict ovarian and fallopian tube cancer cases and rates through 2030. Cases of both ovarian and fallopian tube cancers were included to account for misclassification that often occurs between the two cancer sites and also because some ovarian cases are thought to originate in the fallopian tube. Predictions were made using age-period-cohort regression models implemented in the Nordpred software. Results: The number of ovarian cancer cases is estimated to increase from 23,215 in 2012 to 27,666 in 2030, for a 19.2% total increase in new cases of ovarian cancer in 2030. Fallopian tube cancer cases are expected to increase from 1,621 in 2012 to 3,686 in 2030. Together, 31,352 cases of ovarian and fallopian tube cancers are projected to be diagnosed in 2030, for an overall expected increase of 26.2% for these cancers. Discussion: Given the expected increase in cancer cases, prioritizing resources for ovarian cancer control is warranted. Continued training and outreach of gynecologic oncologists to ensure ovarian cancer patients receive optimal treatment is necessary. Systems changes that ensure referral and accessibility to gynecologic oncologists are also needed. Additional research into genetic and other factors that predispose individuals to ovarian cancer, and the continued characterization of symptoms may help to identify cases earlier, potentially resulting in more treatment options for ovarian cancer patients. Citation Format: Sherri L. Stewart, Trevor D. Thompson, Hannah K. Weir, Sun Hee Rim. Ovarian cancer incidence projections in the United States: Expected increases through 2030. [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the AACR Special Conference on Advances in Ovarian Cancer Research: Exploiting Vulnerabilities; Oct 17-20, 2015; Orlando, FL. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Clin Cancer Res 2016;22(2 Suppl):Abstract nr B35.