Abstract 9754: Individual-Level Cardiovascular Health Behavior and Health Factor Changes (1999-2008), Projections to 2020, and Comparisons with AHA 2020 Impact Goal Targets in US Men and Women: Results from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES)

Abstract

Introduction: A higher number of ideal health behaviors and health factors is associated with a substantial reduction in CV event rates. The AHA 2020 Impact Goals target a 20% relative improvement in overall cardiovascular (CV) health using 4 health behaviors (smoking, body mass index [BMI], physical activity, diet) and 3 health factors (cholesterol, blood pressure, plasma glucose). To date, there have been no studies to estimate future trends in individual-level CV health behavior/factor levels. Methods: We used data on CVD-free individuals from NHANES 2-year cycles (1999-2000, 2001-2, 2003-4, 2005-6, 2007-8) to estimate the number of poor, intermediate, and ideal health behaviors/factors per individual for men and women. We created a composite, individual-level CV health score for all 7 metrics (poor=0 points; intermediate=1 point; ideal=2 points; total scale: 0-14 points) and performed age-adjusted weighted linear regression models to produce β coefficients and forward projections to 2020. We compared these forward projections based on current trends with a 20% relative increase (based on the AHA Goal) in the composite CV health score from 2006 to 2020. Results: The mean number of ideal health behaviors/factors within individual men and women has not significantly changed from 1999 to 2008 (Table 1). The mean CV health score in men increased from 7.5 (1999-2000) to 7.7 (2007-8), but the test for trend was not significant ( β = 0.01, p=0.67); the mean CV health score was higher in women (7.9 in 1999-2000; 8.1 in 2007-8), but the test for trend was also not significant ( β = 0.02, p=0.06). Assuming current trends continue, CV health score projections to 2020 for men (7.7 [95% CI 5.9, 9.5]) and women (8.3 [95% CI 8.0, 8.6]) would not achieve a 20% overall change in the composite score (men: 8.8; women: 9.6). Conclusions: These data suggest that the AHA 2020 Impact Goals to improve CV health by 20% will not be met for individuals if current health behavior/factor trends continue.