Abstract 88: Increasing False Positive Diagnoses May Lead to Overestimation of Stroke Incidence, Particularly in the Young

Abstract

Introduction: Stroke incidence is reportedly increasing in younger adults. While increasing vascular risk factor prevalence has been suggested as a cause, the reasons for rising stroke incidence in the young are not clear. We explored several alternate explanations: trends in neurologically-focused emergency department (ED) visits, differential diagnostic classification of stroke and TIA over time, and changes in the use of advanced imaging in young and older adults. Methods: We performed a retrospective, serial, cross-sectional study on a nationally representative sample of all ED visits in the United States to quantify changes in patterns of neurologically-focused ED visits, stroke and TIA diagnoses, and rates of MRI utilization for young (18 – 44 years) and older (65+ years) adults over a 17-year period (1995 – 2000; 2005 – 2015) using National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NHAMCS) data. Results: In young adults, 0.4% (95% CI 0.3% – 0.5%) of neurologically-focused ED visits resulted in a primary diagnosis of stroke vs. 6.8% (95% CI 6.2% – 7.5%) for older adults. In both populations, the incidence of neurologically-focused ED visits has increased over time (+111/100,000 population/year, 95% CI +94 – +130 in the young vs. +70/100,000 population/year, 95% CI +34 – +108 in older adults). There was no evidence of differential classification of TIA to stroke over time (OR 1.001 per year, 95% CI 0.926 – 1.083 in the young; OR 1.003 per year, 95% CI 0.982 – 1.026 in older adults) and no evidence of disproportionate rise in MRI utilization for neurologically-focused ED visits in the young (OR 1.057 per year, 95% CI 1.028 – 1.086 in the young; OR 1.095 per year, 95% CI 1.066 – 1.125 in older adults). Conclusions: If the specificity of stroke diagnosis amongst ED visits is similar amongst young and older populations, then the combination of data observed here, including (1) a lower prior probability of stroke diagnoses in the young and (2) an increasing trend in neurologically-focused ED visits in both age groups, suggests that false positive diagnoses will increase over time, with a faster rise in the young compared to older adults. These data suggest a potential explanation that may contribute to higher stroke incidence in the young and merits further scrutiny.