Abstract 6557: A 6-microbial signature risk score for overall survival prediction in hepatocellular carcinoma: a machine learning approach

Abstract

Abstract Introduction: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a severe type of cancer associated with high malignancy and poor prognosis. To reach a better prognosis, several factors affecting HCC patients must be considered. In this study, we aim to investigate the relationship between gut microbiota with the survival of HCC patients, and to build a machine learning (ML) prognostic model based on microbiome signatures. Methods: Microbial and survival data for HCC patients from The Cancer Genome Atlas Program (TCGA) were obtained using the cBioportal database. The microbiome signatures were screened for prognostic effect using the univariate cox regression. The significant microbial signatures were fitted into the Least Absolute Selection and Shrinkage Operator - Cox (LASSO-Cox) model to reduce multicollinearity. Signatures with non-zero LASSO coefficients were screened for independent effect in the multivariate cox regression analysis. Results: A total of 1407 microbial signatures were downloaded from TCGA dataset. 63 prognostic microbial signatures were identified using the univariate cox. A total of 30 prognostic microbial signatures were screened out using LASSO and further evaluated using independent effect to obtain microbiome risk score. Six microbial signatures were identified as independent prognostic markers including: Marichromatium (HR: 1.26; 95%CI: [0.01-1.56]), p=0.038), Paraclostridium (HR: 1.45; 95%CI:[1.15-1.82], p=0.002), Pseudorhodoferax (HR: 1.20; 95%CI:[1.01-1.43], p=0.037), Chitinimonas (HR: 1.47 95%CI: [1.10-1.97], p=0.009), Marinobacter (HR: 0.79; 95%CI: [0.65-0.97], p=0.022), Desulfovermiculus (HR: 1.44; 95%CI: [1.16-1.78, p=0.001]). Kaplan-Meier survival plot showed better overall survival (OS) in the low-risk group compared to the high-risk group (median OS: 83.6 vs. 41.8; log-rank p-value <0.0001). Conclusion: Our results show that the gut microbiota is significantly associated with HCC prognosis, in which 5 of them were associated with poorer prognosis and one was associated with better survival. These microbial signatures provide a potential prognostic marker for HCC survival. Citation Format: Nour N. Al-Bzour, Ayah N. Al-Bzour. A 6-microbial signature risk score for overall survival prediction in hepatocellular carcinoma: a machine learning approach [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2023; Part 1 (Regular and Invited Abstracts); 2023 Apr 14-19; Orlando, FL. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2023;83(7_Suppl):Abstract nr 6557.