Abstract

Background: There have been important advances in secondary stroke prevention and a focus on healthcare delivery in the US over the past two decades. Yet, little is known about temporal patterns of recurrent stroke in the US. We examined temporal trends in recurrent stroke by sociodemographic characteristics and geographic areas using national Medicare data. Methods: We included fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries aged ≥65y with a primary discharge diagnosis of ischemic stroke from 2001 to 2016. We fit a Cox proportional hazards model that censored for change in Medicare enrollment and accounted for death to evaluate the temporal trend in 1-year recurrent stroke, adjusting for demographic and clinical factors. Models were repeated for subgroups defined by age, sex, race, and state. We mapped smoothed rates of 1-year recurrent stroke by county to assess geographic variation over time. Results: There were 3,485,618 unique beneficiaries discharged with stroke during the study period. Demographic and clinical characteristics remained relatively stable over time, but the proportions discharged with home health services and inpatient rehabilitation increased. The observed 1-year recurrent stroke rate decreased from 11.2% in 2001-2004 to 9.3% in 2013-2016, with an adjusted annual reduction in recurrence from 2001-2016 of 1.49% (95% CI 1.40%-1.58%). There were significant reductions for all age, sex, and race groups (A). Geographic areas with persistently high rates were identified over time (B). In state-stratified analysis, the annual percentage reduction in recurrence ranged from -1.2% to 2.5% and was significant for all but 12 states. Conclusions: Recurrent strokes decreased over time overall and by sociodemographic subgroups; however, we identified geographic areas with persistently high recurrence rates. Such findings can target secondary prevention intervention opportunities for high-risk populations and communities.

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