Abstract 349: Prognostication for Out-of-Hospital Cardiogenic Cardiac Arrest Patients Using Advanced Machine Learning Technique

Abstract

Introduction and Objective: Early prognostication for cardiogenic out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) patients remain challenging. Recently, advanced machine learning techniques have been employed for clinical diagnosis and prognostication for various conditions. Therefore, in this study, we attempted to establish a prognostication model for cardiogenic OHCA using an advanced machine learning technique. Methods and Results: Data of a prospective multi-center cohort study of OHCA patients transported by an ambulance to 67 medical institutions in Kanto area of Japan between January 2012 and March 2013 was used in this study. Data for cardiogenic OHCA patients aged ≥18 years were retrieved and patients were grouped according to the time of calls for ambulances (training set: between January 1, 2012 and December 12, 2012; test set: between January 1, 2013 and March 31, 2013). From among 421 variables observed during the period between calls for ambulances and initial in-hospital treatments of cardiogenic OHCA, 38 prehospital factors or 56 prehospital factors and initial in-hospital factors were used for prognostication, respectively. Prognostication models for 1-year survival were established with random forest method, an advanced machine learning method that aggregates a series of decision trees for classification and regression. After 10-fold internal cross validation in the training set, prognostication models were validated using test set. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the prediction performance of models. Prognostication models trained with 38 variables or 56 variables for 1-year survival showed AUC values of 0.93±0.01 and 0.95±0.01, respectively. Conclusions: Prognostication models trained with advanced machine learning technique showed favorable prediction capability for 1-year survival of cardiogenic OHCA. These results indicate that an advanced machine learning technique can be applicable to establish early prognostication model for cardiogenic OHCA.