Abstract 32: Temporal Trends And Drivers Of Growth In Heart Transplantation Volumes In A Globally Representative Sample

Abstract

Background: The need to handle a growing number of advanced heart failure (HF) patients has fueled growth in heart transplantation (HT) activities and development of effective strategies to increase the availability of donors in the last two decades. The impact of these changes on global HT volumes has not been previously described. Methods: Using data from the Global Observatory of Donation and Transplantation (GODT) for the years (2000-2019), we obtained the annual number of HT performed in each country per million population (PMP), number of brain-dead donors, and number of officially registered HT centers. We also identified WHO countries with sustained HT activities (HT data in ≥ 5 years). Data on health expenditures and on the prevalence of severe HF were collected from the World Health Expenditure and Global Burden of Disease (GBD) databases, respectively. Average annual percentage change (AAPC) in number of HT PMP was calculated using JoinPoint software. The contribution of the above-mentioned variables on change in HT volumes over time was determined using a linear mixed-effects regression model. Results: In a sample of 55/194 countries with sustained HT activities, the absolute number of HT increased by 92% (from 4504 in 2000 to 8646 in 2019), or 0.05 to 0.09 HT PMP with an AAPC of 3.6% (95% CI [2.7, 4.5]) in HT/PMP. Temporal trends in HT volumes varied considerably among countries, such that as significant growth in HT was seen in 41 (74.5%) countries (AAPC 5.6%; 95% CI [5, 6.2]), while the remaining 14 countries experienced a decline (AAPC -0.7%; 95% CI [-1.1, -0.2]) ( Figure A ). In an adjusted model, donor availability, HF prevalence, and health expenditure, but not the number of HT centers, significantly predicted an increase in HT over time ( Figure B ). Conclusion: Despite near doubling of HT worldwide in the last two decades, there remain unmet needs to face the growing burden of HF, specifically maximizing organ utilization in brain-dead donors.