Abstract 32: Optimal Threshold for Defining Early Clinical Deterioration as a Predictor of Poor Outcome in Acute Intracerebral Hemorrhage

Abstract

Background: Many patients with acute intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) clinically deteriorate between the time of paramedic assessment in the field and Emergency Department (ED) arrival. Cohort studies have used decline in the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score from prehospital assessment to ED assessment to identify patients with early clinical deterioration (ECD), but the degree of GCS decline that best correlates with poor final functional outcome has not been delineated. Methods: Consecutive cases with primary ICH on initial imaging were identified from the Field Administration of Stroke Therapy-Magnesium (FAST-MAG) phase 3 clinical trial of intravenous magnesium vs. placebo. All subjects underwent GCS evaluation in the field by paramedics within 2 hours from symptom onset, and again in the ED by study research coordinators. Poor outcome was defined as a modified Rankin Scale of 4 to 6 at 3-months. Deteriorations in GCS from one point through 10 points were evaluated in relation to poor final functional outcome through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and area under curve (AUC). Results: Among the 369 (22%) patients with primary ICH, mean [SD] age was 65 [13] years, 34% were women, 79% White race, 34% Hispanic ethnicity, 80% had pre-existing hypertension, 20% diabetes, 18% smokers. Paramedic on scene time was a median [IQR] of 23 [15-40] minutes from last known well and time of GCS assessment in the ED was a median of 140 [119-175] minutes after last known well. Glasgow Coma Scale scores were mean 14.4 (SD 1.5) and median 15 [15-15] in the field and mean 12.1 (SD 4.5) and median 15 [10-15] in the ED, and 59% had a poor outcome at 3 months. Frequency of deteriorations on the GCS included: ≥1 point - 38%, ≥2points - 31%, ≥3 points - 27%, ≥5 points - 21%, and ≥10 points - 13%. The best performing cutpoints on the the ROC for predicting poor final outcome were ECD definitions of GCS decline of >=1: sensitivity 54% and specificity 85%; and GCS decline of >=2: sensitivity 46% and specificity 91%. The c statistic for ECD defined as a 1 point GCS decline as a predictor of poor final outcome was 0.71 (95%CI 0.66, 0.76). Conclusions: Early clinical deterioration of GCS is common and its presence may be helpful in predicting poor outcome.