Abstract 2492: Predicting Lack of Development of Delayed Cerebral Ischemia after Subarachnoid Hemorrhage

Abstract

INTRODUCTION After aneurysm treatment, patients with subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) are typically kept in the intensive care unit (ICU) to be monitored for signs of delayed cerebral ischemia (DCI). Identifying patients at very low risk of developing this complication who could be safely transferred out of the ICU early could have a very positive financial impact. METHOD We analyzed 307 consecutive patients admitted to the intensive care unit from October 2001 to June 2011. Demographic, clinical and neuroimaging data were recorded. The relationship between these variables and absent DCI was analyzed using univariate and multivariate logistic regression models. RESULTS DCI did not develop in 169 patients (57.9%). Among factors at admission, age ≥ 68 years (p=0.0003; OR 3.16, 95% CI 1.67-6.39), WFNS I-III at presentation (p= 0.0003;OR 2.73, 95% CI 1.57-4.79), WFNS I-III at worst (p= 0.0003; OR 2.39, 95% CI 1.48-3.87), WFNS I-III post resuscitation (p= 0.0006; OR 2.85 95% 1.56-5.32), modified Fisher grade 1-2 (p= 0.0021; OR 2.43, 95% CI 1.37-4.47), absence of intracranial hematoma (p= 0.0042; OR 2.26, 95% CI 1.29-4.01), absence of intraventricular hematoma (p=0.045; OR 1.61, 95% CI 1.01-2.58), absence of cerebrospinal fluid diversion (p= 0.0002; OR 2.54, 95% CI 1.56-4.20) and aneurysm in the posterior circulation (p=0.0253; OR 1.74, 95% CI 1.07-2.87) were associated with absence of DCI. On multivariate analysis, a model including age ≥ 68 years (p= 0.0003; OR 3.23, 95% CI 1.68-6.62), WFNS at presentation I-III (p= 0.0092; OR 2.18, 95% CI 1.21-3.99) and modified Fisher grade 1-2 (p=0.02; OR 2.04, 95% CI 1.11-3.89) was independently uniformly predictive of the absence of DCI (specificity and positive predictive value of 100%; p<0.0001). CONCLUSION We propose a new model that can reliably identify a group of patients with aneurysmal SAH who have very low risk of developing DCI. These patients could be candidates for early transfer to the general ward after treatment of the ruptured aneurysm.