Abstract 15875: Prediction of Intensive Care Unit Admission Among Patients Hospitalized for COVID-19: The Intermountain Coronavirus ICU Risk Model (CORONA-ICU)

Abstract

Background: Treatment for COVID-19 has created surges in hospitalizations, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, and the need for advanced medical therapy and equipment, including ventilators. Identifying patients early on who are at risk for more intensive hospital resource use and poor outcomes could result in shorter hospital stays, lower costs, and improved outcomes. Therefore, we created clinical risk scores (CORONA-ICU and -ICU+) to predict ICU admission among patients hospitalized for COVID-19. Methods: Intermountain Healthcare patients who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 and were hospitalized between March 4, 2020 and June 8, 2020 were studied. Derivation of CORONA-ICU risk score models used weightings of commonly collected risk factors and medicines. The primary outcome was admission to the ICU during hospitalization, and secondary outcomes included death and ventilator use. Results: A total of 451 patients were hospitalized for a SARS-CoV-2 positive infection, and 191 (42.4%) required admission to the ICU. Patients admitted to the ICU were older (58.2 vs. 53.6 years), more often male (61.3% vs. 48.5%), and had higher rates of hyperlipidemia, hypertension, diabetes, and peripheral arterial disease. ICU patients more often took ACE inhibitors, beta-blockers, calcium channel blockers, diuretics, and statins. Table 1 shows variables that were evaluated and included in the CORONA-ICU risk prediction models. Models adding medications (CORONA-ICU+) improved risk-prediction. Though not created to predict death and ventilator use, these models did so with high accuracy (Table 2). Conclusion: The CORONA-ICU and -ICU+ models, composed of commonly collected risk factors without or with medications, were shown to be highly predictive of ICU admissions, death, and ventilator use. These models can be efficiently derived and effectively identify high-risk patients who require more careful observation and increased use of advanced medical therapies.