Abstract 15756: The Beneficial Impact of Primary Care Providers’ Supply on the Cardiovascular Mortality Rates in the United States: A Nationwide Population Analysis 2011-2019

Abstract

Introduction: United States is facing an increasing shortage of primary care physicians (PCP) and health care demands. However, data on the relationship between PCP availability and burden of cardiovascular mortality (CVM) and related disparities, is limited. Hypothesis: Herein, we evaluate the nationwide impact of county PCP levels on CVM in overall and within disparate populations stratified by age, sex, and race/ethnic subgroups. Methods: PCP is calculated as the ratio of PCPs to the population, using data from National Center for Health statistics. Age-adjusted CVM rates (ACVM) between 2011 to 2019, were obtained using CDC database. Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance was utilized to acquire county characteristics and confounders. Poisson linear mixed model was employed. Results: Of 3143 U.S. counties, 2900 counties (62% white; 51% female; 14% aged ≥65) had data available on ACVM and PCP.In a multivariate model adjusted for demographics, CV risk, socioeconomic, and environmental factors, higher PCP levels significantly associated with lower ACVM (Standardized IRR: 0.979; 95% CI: 0.972 to 0.986), which translates to 4.8 fewer CV deaths each year (AYD). This effect was relatively higher in middle-aged [45-64] (IRR: 0.967) versus elderly [≥65] (IRR: 0.980), males (IRR: 0.981) versus females (IRR: 0.972), and within Whites (IRR: 0.976). Notably, the relative impact of PCP was greatest in [45-64] Whites (IRR: 0.963), while the absolute impact was highest amongst ≥65 males with 36 fewer CV deaths each year. ( Figure ). Conclusions: Higher PCP supply is robustly associated with lower ACVM, and that beneficial effect is most evident amongst both age and sex subgroups as well as non-Hispanic whites. Moreover, this association is significantly independent of potential confounders that have a plausible association with CVM. Therefore, population-level strategies to promote primary care access, are imperative for reducing the burden of CVM and promoting health equity.