Abstract 15545: Incremental Prognostic Value of Echocardiographic Markers of Left Ventricular Remodeling and Diastolic Function in the Surgical Treatment for Ischemic Heart Failure Trial

Abstract

Introduction: Whether echocardiographic (echo) markers of left ventricular (LV) remodeling and diastolic dysfunction contribute incremental and independent prognostic information to clinical risk markers in patients (Pts) with coronary artery disease and severe LV systolic dysfunction is unclear. We sought to determine which echo variables provide the greatest prognostic value in the Surgical Treatment for Ischemic Heart Failure (STICH) population. Methods: Pts enrolled in STICH for whom transmitral Doppler (E/A ratio) was available on a baseline echo interpreted by an echo core laboratory blinded to treatment and outcomes formed the analysis cohort. Comprehensive datasets to account for missing echo data were created by multiple imputation and the impact on all-cause mortality was determined with the Cox’s regression model. Results: E/A ratio could be measured in 1511 of the 2136 Pts enrolled in STICH. Amongst markers of diastolic dysfunction, E/A ratio was the most significant predictor of mortality (χ 2 41.05, p <0.001) with a non-linear, u-shaped, relationship. Mortality was lowest with E/A ratio = 1.0, and increased for E/A ratio <0.6 and >1.0 up to 2.3, beyond which there was no further increase in risk. The combination of larger LV end-systolic volume index (LVESVI), low or high E/A ratio, and mitral regurgitation severity grade, had highly significant incremental negative effects on mortality (χ 2 69.65, p<0.001) when added to a multivariable model with clinical risk markers. Overall, creatinine (χ 2 30.00, p <0.001), followed by LVESVI (χ 2 27.26, p<0.001), age, and E/A ratio (χ 2 12.46, p<0.001) were among the most significant predictors of mortality and accounted for 74% of the total prognostic information. LVESVI and E/A ratio were stronger predictors of poor prognosis than New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class, hemoglobin, diabetes, stroke, or atrial fibrillation. Conclusions: Echo markers of advanced LV remodeling and diastolic dysfunction add incremental prognostic value to clinical risk markers and are more predictive of poor prognosis than advanced NYHA functional class or anemia. LVESVI and E/A ratio outperformed other echo markers and should be considered standard in assessing risk in Pts with ischemic LV dysfunction.