Abstract

Introduction: While the prognostic implications of higher pulmonary artery systolic pressure (PASP) are well established, few data exist regarding longitudinal change in pulmonary pressure in the community. We characterized longitudinal changes in PASP over ~6.5 years in late life, and identified predictors of this change. Methods: We studied 1,426 elderly participants in the prospective, community-based Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study who underwent protocol echocardiography and had assessable tricuspid regurgitation spectral Doppler at 5 th (2011-2013) and 7 th (2018-2019) study visits. We used multivariable linear regression to identify clinical, echocardiographic and biomarker predictors of change in PASP. Results: Mean age was 74±5 years at Visit 5, 32% were men, 24% black, and mean PASP was 27.5±5.0 mmHg. Over a median of 6.5±3.0 years, PASP increased by 5.2±7.7 mmHg on average, with no significant differences by race (white 5.0±7.6, black 5.8±7.9; p=0.40) or sex (women 5.2±7.7, men 5.1±7.8; p=0.95). In models adjusted for heart rate and blood pressure at both visits, and for PASP, clinical and echocardiographic measures at Visit 5, independent predictors of longitudinal increase in PASP at Visit 5 were higher NT-proBNP (p=0.005), larger left atrial volume index (p=0.045), and lower forced expiratory volume at 1 second (p=0.019). Longitudinal increase in PASP was associated with concomitant increases in LAVi, E/e’ ratio, and LV mass index ( Figure ; all p <0.003), but not with changes in LVEF or strain. Conclusions: PASP increased by 5±8 mmHg over 6.5±3.0 years in late life, with greater increases associated with higher filling pressure and worse pulmonary function. Increases in PASP are accompanied by longitudinal worsening in LV diastolic - but not systolic - measures.

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