Abstract 14920: Predictors of Adverse Outcomes Following Elective Ascending Aortic Aneurysm Repair: A Nationwide Cohort Study

Abstract

Introduction: Elective surgical intervention for ascending aortic aneurysm (AA) is performed when the risk of a future aortic catastrophe outweighs the risk of surgery; however, the data of complication rates following elective repair are limited. Methods: We analyzed adults >18 years of age hospitalized for elective ascending AA surgical intervention in the 2016 and 2017 Nationwide Readmissions Databases. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes were acute ischemic stroke (AIS), acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and non-elective 30-day readmission. Bayesian lasso probit regression models were used to identify independent predictors of primary and secondary outcomes. Results: Among 4,073 patients hospitalized for elective surgical repair, 28.9% were female. Mean age was 63.0 ± 12.4 years. Concomitant aortic valve surgery was performed in 67%. Overall, 72 (1.8%) died during the initial hospitalization (Figure A). Predictors of in-hospital mortality are shown in Figure B. Of patients alive at discharge, 482 (11.8%) were readmitted within 30 days, with a mortality rate of 2.3% during readmission. Predictors of non-elective 30-day readmission included non-urban localization (Change in probability: 32.5%, 21.7 - 45.7%), chronic liver disease (18.1%, 11.4 - 27.0%), and chronic neurological disorder (15.9%, 12.1 - 20.1%). Main causes of readmissions were arrythmias (20.3%), procedural complications (14.5%), and peri-, endo-, or myocarditis (9.3%). While procedural volume varied between one and 68 procedures / institution, it was not associated with in-hospital mortality, AIS, AMI, or 30-day readmission (p>0.05 for all). Conclusions: One in 25 patients will have a significant complication or die following elective ascending aortic repair and 1 in 8 will be readmitted within 30 days. The risk of surgery compared to the risk of a future aortic catastrophe should be thoroughly assessed prior to recommendation of an ascending AA repair.