Abstract 13918: Prognostic Value of Plasma Ngal in the 12-month All-cause Mortality of Acute Heart Failure or Acute Decompensated Heart Failure

Abstract

Introduction: The presence of acute kidney injury in the setting of acute heart failure (AHF) or acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) is very common occurrence and was termed cardiorenal syndrome 1 (CRS1). Renal dysfunction is common in patients with AHF or ADHF and is associated with significant early and late morbidity and mortality. Neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) is an early predictor of acute kidney injury and adverse events in various diseases; however, in AHF or ADHF patients, its significance remains poorly understood. This study was aimed to evaluate the 12 month prognostic value of plasma NGAL in AHF or ADHF patients Hypothesis: plasma NGAL has value in prognosis of 12-month all-cause mortality of Acute Heart Failure or Acute Decompensated Heart Failure Methods: This was a prospective cohort study Results: there were 46 all-cause mortality cases (rate 33.1%) 12 months follow up after discharge. There were 11 cases (rate 7.9%) lost to follow-up; mean age 66.12 ± 15.77, men accounted for 50.4%. The optimal cut-off of NGAL for 12-month all-cause mortality prognosis was > 383.74 ng/ml, AUC 0.632 (95% CI 0.53-0.74, p = 0.011), sensitivity 58.7 %, specificity 68.29 %, positive predictive value 50.9%, negative predictive value 74.7%. Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed that the high plasma NGAL (≥ 400 ng/ml) group exhibited a worse prognosis than the low plasma NGAL (< 400 ng/ml) group in 12-month all-cause death (Hazard Ratio 2.56; 95%CI 1.35-4.84, P=0.0039. Independent predictors of 12-month all-cause-mortality were identified using multivarable Cox proportional-hazards regression models with backward-stepwise selection method consisted of two variables: level of NGAL, mechanical ventialtion at admission. Conclusions: Plasma NGAL and mechanical ventilation at admission were independent predictors of 12-month all-cause mortality in patients with AHF or ADHF. The survival probability 12-month follow-up of high level NGAL (≥ 400 ng/ml) groups were lower than that of low level NGAL (<400 ng/ml,), difference was statistically significant χ2 = 8.31; p = 0.0047 by Kaplan-Meier curves.