Abstract 12510: Spatial and Temporal Effects on Human Health Following a Serious Natural Disaster

Abstract

Introduction: The effects of disasters can be classified into direct effects and indirect effects. Although direct effects of disasters have been extensively reported, the reports on indirect effects are scarce. We analysed the long-term spatiotemporal effects of The Great East Japan Earthquake, which occurred on March 11, 2011, to elucidate its direct and indirect effects. Methods: The spatial analyses and the temporal analyses were performed using the data from Japanese Diagnosis Procedure Combination (DPC) database from August 01, 2010 to March 31, 2015. Results: The number of patients in DPC-participating hospitals showed apparent decrease with odds ratio of 0.46 (25th-75th percentile 0.10-0.80) immediately after the earthquake (Figure1), and the crude death ratio increased significantly with odds ratio of 1.78 (25th-75th percentile 1.13-2.26), lasting for 12 months (Figure2). This change was not only seen in the disaster area but in the broader area of Japan. The proportion of patients admitted to hospitals due to malignant disease largely decreased (53.8% before earthquake, 34.8% within 1 year after earthquake, odds ratio 0.65), and the proportion of patients admitted to hospitals due to cardiovascular disease largely increased (13.1% before earthquake, 28.5% after earthquake, odds ratio 2.17) within 1 year after the earthquake. Conclusions: A wide-scale natural disaster affects the number of patients and mortality prominently in the disaster area for at least 1 year, especially in patients with cardiovascular disease. The results of this study provide important information for development of future disaster control measures.