Abstract 12429: Potential Impact of Eliminating Physical Activity Activities Among the United States Adults

Abstract

Introduction: Disparities in physical activity levels among adults have been a significant and growing concern in the United States (US) for the past few decades, disproportionately impacting minority populations. Yet, demonstrating and quantifying the potential benefits of eliminating these disparities is challenging as traditional statistics cannot simultaneously account for changes to physical activity levels, subsequent health-related factors, and socioeconomic measures. Aims: This study developed an agent-based model (ABM) to simulate the elimination of physical activity disparities among race/ethnic groups in the US. adults (ages 18-30), and determine the lifetime health and economic impact. Methods: We developed a computational simulation model representing US adults ages 18-30, their physical activity and subsequent weight changes over time, and the lifetime physical health outcomes and the associated costs. We simulated Black and Hispanic Americans getting the same physical activity levels as White Americans. Results: Eliminating disparities/achieving parity in physical activity among adults such that the same proportion of Black and Hispanic Americans are meeting the physical activity guidelines as White Americans could reduce overweight/obesity prevalence by 1.13% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.13%-1.14%) among Black and Hispanic Americans, resulting in approximately 203,000 fewer cases of overweight/obesity (95% CI: 202,000-204,000). Additionally, this could avert 65,000 (95% CI: 64,800-65,200) cases of weight-related diseases (i.e., coronary heart disease, cancer, and diabetes) and gain 249,000 (95% CI: 249,000-250,000) quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). This translates to savings of $3.94 billion (95% CI: $3.93-$3.95 billion) and $5.43 billion (95% CI: $5.41-$5.46 billion) from direct medical costs and productivity losses averted, respectively, due to improvements in physical health. Conclusions: These cost savings represent what could be invested to reduce physical activity disparities and still break even, which can give decision-makers a sense of how to prioritize achieving equity in physical activity levels in US adults.