Abstract 12182: Importance of Comorbidities in 24-month AF-Free Survival After Catheter Ablation

Abstract

Background: Presence of cardiac and non-cardiac comorbidities is reported to affect success of catheter ablation (CA) of atrial fibrillation (AF), however their predictive value in 1 and 2 year AF free survival is not reported. Research Questions: Which cardiac and non-cardiac comorbidities are most useful in predicting AF free survival after a single CA for paroxysmal and persistent AF. Goals: Create a model to identify potential risk factors that may reduce the long term success of catheter ablation for patients with AF to allow for risk modification Methods: We included 1435 patients with symptomatic AF undergoing first time CA in 1 of 8 Hospitals of Northwell Health and follow ups for at least 24 months ablation. Baseline echocardiographic and laboratory data were extracted from our common EMR, and clinical outcomes were determined after manual review of the 6, 12 and 24 month visit. Baseline patient characteristics included age, gender, BMI, diagnoses, laboratory and echocardiographic measures used in a stepwise estimation logistic regression model using STATA /IC 16.1. Results: From our patient cohort (age 67.1±10.4, 565 female, 645 persistent), 28% of patients had AF recurrence within the 1st year, and 32.5% within 2 years. Multivariate analysis identified persistent AF as the only independent risk factor for AF recurrence within 12 months (P=.001). For 24-month recurrence the independent predictors were LVEF (p=.014), Diabetes Mellitus (p=.045), cardioversions prior to ablation (DCCV) (p=.001), and pulmonary disease (p=.001). Energy modality was not a significant predictor of AF recurrence. Hypertension (p=.008) was found to be negatively associated with AF recurrence. Our prediction model (Figure 1) for AF recurrence 24 months post-CA produced an ROC curve of 0.8048 and was 77% accurate. Conclusion: The presence of baseline comorbidities implies that such comorbidities, rather than procedural failure, are mostly related with AF recurrence after 1 year.