Abstract 12122: Five-Year Serial Measurement of the Intermountain Mortality Risk Score for Population Health Assessment Reveals Personalized Temporal Trajectories of Differential Longevity Over Two Decades

Abstract

Introduction: Health, wellness, and healthcare are most effectively and efficiently managed when health status is quantitatively measured. The Intermountain Mortality Risk Score (IMRS) is a well-validated low-cost decision tool calculated from the complete blood count and basic metabolic profile that can be electronically deployed to inform clinician or patient actions. This study evaluated if 3 serial IMRS measurements improved mortality prediction. Methods: In 119,379 Intermountain Healthcare outpatients, inpatients, and emergency patients, baseline (BL) IMRS was calculated in 1999-2005. Of those, the following were excluded: 22,678 who died prior to having 3 IMRS measurements and 38,228 survivors who at 5 years (y) post-BL did not have 3 IMRS. In the study cohort of 58,473 patients, a 1 st follow-up (1F) IMRS was available 1.49±0.79 y post-BL (range 1-4 y), and a 2 nd follow-up (2F) IMRS at 3.75±0.80 y post-BL (range 2-5 y). Patients had 13.4±1.7 y of follow-up after 2F (range: 9.3-18.7 y), with total follow-up post-BL of 17.2±1.5 y (range: 14.3-20.7 y). Results: Overall, 26,693 patients died (45.7%) after 2F. In females, IMRS for decedents vs. survivors was, respectively, 11.3±3.9 vs 6.3±4.0 at BL, 11.1±3.9 vs 5.7±4.0 at 1F, and 12.2±4.2 vs 6.1±4.0 at 2F; differences in males were similar to those results (all p<0.001). Relative risks for IMRS categories are shown in the Table. C-statistics for females were c= 0.815, 0.834, 0.858 for BL, 1F, and 2F, with 0.872 for a sum of the 3 IMRS (results were similar for males, with absolute c 0.06-0.08 lower). Conclusions: IMRS predicted substantial risk differences at each of 3 timepoints, but the IMRS trajectory (including declines in IMRS) revealed by the sequence of IMRS measurements better personalized risk assessment. When risk level and direction are considered together, critical junctures in a person’s health journey may be revealed, empowering earlier or more intensive prevention, diagnostic testing, and interventions.